Statistics and Its Interface
Volume 10 (2017)
Real-time financial surveillance via quickest change-point detection methods
Pages: 93 – 106
We consider the problem of efficient financial surveillance aimed at “on-the-go” detection of structural breaks (anomalies) in “live”-monitored financial time series. With the problem approached statistically, viz. as that of multicyclic sequential (quickest) change-point detection, we propose a semi-parametric multi-cyclic change-point detection procedure to promptly spot anomalies as they occur in the time series under surveillance. The proposed procedure is a derivative of the likelihood ratio-based Shiryaev–Roberts (SR) procedure; the latter is a quasi-Bayesian surveillance method known to deliver the fastest (in the multi-cyclic sense) speed of detection, whatever be the false alarm frequency. We offer a case study where we first carry out, step by step, a preliminary statistical analysis of a set of real-world financial data, and then set up and devise (a) the proposed SR-based anomaly-detection procedure and (b) the celebrated Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) chart to detect structural breaks in the data. While both procedures performed well, the proposed SR-derivative, conforming to the intuition, seemed slightly better.
CUSUM chart, financial surveillance, sequential analysis, Shiryaev–Roberts procedure, quickest change-point detection
2010 Mathematics Subject Classification
Primary 62L10, 62L15. Secondary 62P05.